Tuesday, April 10, 2018

An Example of a Retirement Investment Portfolio

Just for fun, I thought I'd share my current portfolio. Note that it could change on a moment's notice.
This is portfolio for a retired person of 60 years old. You can see that, with a 42% allocation to short term bond funds (with a 2 to 3 year ave duration and yields about 2.5%), that I'm risk averse.

My average dividend yield is about 5%. Many of the positions below were recently added back to my portfolio based on my assumption that interest rates have peaked and that the world's economic growth is slowing and that will likely keep a lid on interest rates. If that assumption changes, my invested allocation will drop quickly.

I just added a small short position this morning on the equity market's euphoria over "conciliatory" words from China's president Xi. That position might change at any time.

Let me know if this kind of information is interesting to you.

I've indicated most positions using symbols. 

PositionAllocationDividend Yld
Short term Bond funds - VCSH, IGHG, EALDX41.80%2.66%
Short Positions - SPY-2.82%
Net Long Stocks24.19%
Preferred Stock CEFs - FPE, HTD, FFC, DFP6.37%6.93%
BDCs - ARCC, TCPC, SUNS, PFLT3.07%9.31%
Gold/Silver Mining Stocks/Commodities0.00%
Treasury/Agg Bond/Govt Bonds - TLT8.43%2.55%
Muni Bond CEF Funds - AFB,KTF,BKN,MNP, VPV,BBN10.50%5.69%
Corp Bond Funds0.00%
Stock Allocation
Consumer Discretionary0.00%
Utilities - UTG, DUK, MO4.05%5.66%
Gas Dist Utilities0.00%
Telecom - T, VZ, BCE1.98%5.15%
Commodity Stocks - GGN0.59%
Oil/Gas- RDSA, TOT, BP2.40%5.00%
REITS - NRZ, RFI, WPC, VTR, EPR8.73%8.23%
Other Misc Equity0.00%
Tax Advantaged Equity Income Funds0.00%
International stocks 0.00%

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Re-Post From 2012: Ridiculous Chinese Claims On S. China Sea

With a three aircraft carrier flotilla heading right now to disputed waters to challenge China, I thought it might be useful to re-post this explanation of how we've gotten to this ridiculous position. It's all Chinese insanity. The Chinese are insane mercantilists (unfair traders who basically block imports, except raw commodities, from most of their trading partners and run huge trade surpluses to enrich themselves). Then they make absurd claims on ALL of the South China Sea including territorial waters that many neighboring countries are lawfully exploiting.  A tribunal in The Hague has ruled against these ridiculous claims on the entire S.China Sea. The Chinese have overstepped. They have one old aircraft carrier that they brought from the Russians. But they are building more. It's time to stop their unfair trade and their unfair claims.

Here's the re-post:

Have a look at a map showing Chinese territorial claims versus claims of it's SE Asian neighbors. (UNCLOS, referenced in the map below, is an acronym for UN Convention on Law of the Sea.)  Most of the world operates within the UNCLOS agreement which gives each country the right to exploit waters out to 200 miles for their own exclusive economic use. It is the basis for every offshore leasing programs for every country in the world including the US. Only China is making ridiculous claims that contradict the UNCLOS.

Obviously this is outrageous. It is also totally inconsistent with any modern maritime agreement or tradition. The Spratlys and Paracels islands are basically uninhabited, but the Chinese have made a big "show" by recently putting a military garrison on one of them. From the New York Times
China recently established a larger army garrison and expanded the size of an ostensible legislature to govern a speck of land, known as Yongxing Island, more than 200 miles southeast of Hainan. The goal of that move...is to allow Beijing to “exercise sovereignty over all land features inside the South China Sea,” including more than 40 islands “now occupied illegally” by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia.
In the past several weeks, China has steadily increased its pressure, sending patrols with bigger ships and issuing persistent warnings in government-controlled newspapers for Washington to stop supporting its Asian friends against China.
Not only are their claims ridiculous and unreasonable, now the Chinese are using military force and intimidation to defend the ridiculous. As recently as July 2012, there was a stand-off with China and the Philippines recently regarding a Chinese show of force near the Scarborough Shoals off of the Philippines (see map above). Both sides had military vessels in the area and tensions were running high.

All of this is about oil and gas resources by the way. Vietnam has ongoing offshore leasing, exploration and production activities that include foreign operating companies within their 200 mile limit (just like the rest of the world). According to The Economist:
On June 21st Vietnam's parliament passed a maritime law that reasserted the country's claims to the Spratly and Paracel Islands (see map below). China called this a “serious violation” of its sovereignty. It responded by declaring that a county-level government which supposedly governs the two archipelagoes and much of the rest of the South China Sea from one of the Paracel Islands, had been upgraded to the administrative level of a prefecture. Chinese media described this notional jurisdiction, Sansha, as by far the biggest prefecture in the country (though its population of a few hundred people is heavily outnumbered by gulls and its ill-defined territory is mostly water). Some Chinese internet users speculated excitedly about who might be appointed mayor, but reports on some websites that a 45-year-old hydrologist had got the job were later dismissed as a spoof.
Tensions rose further with an announcement late last month by CNOOC, a Chinese state-owned oil company, that it was opening nine blocks in what China calls the South Sea to international bids for oil and gas exploration. These reach to within 37 nautical miles (68km) of Vietnam's coast, according to PetroVietnam, a Vietnamese state-owned oil firm.
The association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, met several weeks ago and the Chinese, with the help of Chinese client-state Cambodia, squashed all evidence that this conflict was even discussed much less settled. I don't know who the Chinese think they're kidding. Do they think the rest of the world is stupid?

The American statement backs the multilateral approach to the disputes championed by ASEAN. Its members are still smarting over their failure—for the first time in the organisation’s 45-year history—to agree on a joint statement after their annual foreign ministers’ meeting, which they held last month in Phnom Penh. It was blocked because Cambodia, a faithful Chinese client, refused to accept wording on the South China Sea demanded by some of its fellow members.
China are communist imperialistic pigs hellbent on driving their economy forward at breakneck speed because the communist party's only legitimacy is that they are creating jobs for their citizens. This includes running roughshod over the environment, human rights, trade policies, their own citizens and/or international law.  They will do anything to stay in power.  They even threaten their SE Asia neighbors with raw and unlawful displays of military force. To feed their perverted drive for legitimacy, they'll distort world's commodity, currency and financial markets and they'll also do anything to hush and silence critics. We see the true colors of the Chinese Regime at work here. 

It's time to stop their unfair trade and their unfair claims.  I hope Trump takes them on.

Dem's Plan to to Assure Electoral Dominance: Make the US a 3rd World Shit-hole

From Julia Hahn at Brietbart from 2015:

Fifty years ago today, Ted Kennedy began changing the face of the United States by ushering the 1965 Immigration and Nationality Act through Congress. That legislation resulted in the fundamental transformation of the demographic, economic, social, and political landscape of nation, exactly the opposite of what its supporters promised.

The Kennedy immigration law abolished the national origins quota system, which had favored immigrants from nations with a similar heritage to our own, and opened up American immigration visas to the entire world.

While about nine in ten of the immigrants who came to the United States during the 19th and 20th century hailed from Europe, the 1965 law inverted that figure. Today about 9 out of every 10 new immigrants brought into the country on green cards come from Latin America, Africa, Asia or the Middle East.

The size of the numbers also grew exponentially as well. According to Pew Research Center, 59 million immigrants entered the United States following the Act’s passage. Including their children, that added 72 million new residents to the U.S. population.

In 1965, according to Pew, the country was 84 percent white, 11 percent black, 4 percent Hispanic and less than 1 percent Asian.

In 2015, as a result of Kennedy’s immigration law, the country is now 62 percent white, 12 percent black, 18 percent Hispanic and 6 percent Asian.

Pew projects that in forty years time, “no racial or ethnic group will constitute a majority of the U.S. population,” as “whites are projected to become less than half of the U.S. population by 2055.” Therefore, by 2065, the nation would be 46 percent white, 24 percent Hispanic, 14 percent Asian and 13 percent black.

Moving forward, Pew projects, births to current Americans will be vastly outnumbered by new arrivals unless Congress hits the “pause” button on issuing new green cards. If that doesn’t happen, Pew projects an immigration flow so large that nine-tenths of all new residents will be immigrants or their children. In a 2012 report, the Center for Immigration Studies observed that: “if the level of immigration the Census Bureau foresees in 2050 were to continue after that date, the U.S. population would reach 618 million by 2100 — double the 2010 population.”

Those numbers could go even higher as many politicians, most notably Senator Marco Rubio, are pushing to dramatically expand the number of green cards, foreign workers and refugees. These limitless immigration expansions are sought by donors who want to keep workers’ salaries as low as possible.

Today, after five decades of large-scale immigration, real average wages are lower than they were in 1973, shortly after the green card gusher began.

Because foreign workers do jobs for such low pay, their incomes are padded with welfare. A census data report authored by the nonpartisan Center for Immigration Studies recently found that “immigrant households use welfare at significantly higher rates than native households,” with more than half of U.S. immigrants on welfare.

Manhattan Institute scholar Heather Mac Donald has observed foreign-born Hispanics and their American-born children use welfare at rates which vastly exceed those of native-born whites. “Native-born Hispanics collected welfare at over twice the rate as native-born whites,” Mac Donald writes.

Moreover, the Hispanic population accounted for almost the entire increase in poverty from 1990 to 2004. As Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson has reported:

The number of Hispanics with incomes below the government’s poverty line [rose] 52 percent; that [represents] almost all (92 percent) of the increase in poor people,” Samuelson writes. “Among children, disparities are greater. Over the same period, Hispanic children in poverty [rose] 43 percent; meanwhile, the numbers of black and non-Hispanic white children in poverty declined 16.9 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively.

The impact of the Kennedy-backed bill is also evident on the nation’s education system. After five decades of providing visas to poor nations, a majority of public school students are minorities, a majority of students now qualify for subsidized school lunches, and U.S. test scores have plummeted. As the liberal-website Vox recently observed:

The results for last year’s SAT test-takers are in, and they’re not good: the lowest on record in the last decade… The pool of test takers is more likely to include poor and nonwhite students than before… SAT-takers have become more racially diverse, largely because a greater share of test-takers are Hispanic now than in the past. The share of students from poor families and those who learned English as a second language have increased… as the pool of test-takers has gotten more diverse and poorer than in the past, the average score has fallen slightly from year to year. To some extent, that’s to be expected.

Increased spending, combined with race-based affirmative action policies, have been widely instituted to try to equalize the results between white and soon-to-be-majority students. But the “achievement gap” remains.

The failing schools, in turn, feed into gangs.

As Heather Mac Donald explains:

California, with one-quarter of the nation’s immigrants and its greatest concentration of Mexicans and Central Americans, is the bellwether state for all things relating to unbridled Hispanic immigration, including crime. The Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study, conducted by sociologists Alejandro Portes of Princeton and RubĂ©n G. Rumbaut of the University of California, Irvine, followed the children of immigrants in San Diego and Miami from 1992 to 2003. A whopping 28 percent of Mexican-American males between the ages of 18 and 24 reported having been arrested since 1995, and 20 percent reported having been incarcerated—a rate twice that of other immigrant groups. Anyone who speaks to Hispanic students in immigrant-saturated schools in Southern California will invariably hear the estimate that 50 percent of a student’s peers have ended up in gangs or other criminal activities.

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Repost From 2014: China Causing More Trouble in SE Asia; Sticks a Fat Finger in Obama's 'Asia Pivot' Eye

In a heavy-handed move to assert broad and outrageous territorial claims, there are now 86 Chinese vessels, ships and an oil rig inside of Vietnam's offshore territorial waters. Local news reports that 3 Chinese military ships are surrounding a Vietnamese marine police vessel this morning and water cannon use continues against Vietnamese ships.

In response, in the past two days, there has been rioting by Vietnamese people against Chinese businesses in both the North and South of the country.  From Reuters,
Thousands of Vietnamese set fire to foreign factories and rampaged through industrial zones in Binh Duong and Dong Nai provinces near Ho Chi Minh City on Tuesday, officials said. Protests continued on Wednesday.
The doctor at a hospital in central Ha Tinh province said five Vietnamese workers and 16 other people described as Chinese were killed on Wednesday night in rioting, one of the worst breakdowns in Sino-Vietnamese relations since the neighbors fought a brief border war in 1979.
"There were about a hundred people sent to the hospital last night. Many were Chinese [Sadly many were Taiwanese who were mistaken for mainland Chinese.]  More are being sent to the hospital this morning," the doctor at Ha Tinh General Hospital told Reuters by phone.
Hundreds of Chinese working in the zones have fled, most to neighboring Cambodia and others by air.
"Yesterday more than 600 Chinese people from Vietnam crossed at Bavet international checkpoint into Cambodia," Cambodian National Police spokesman Kirt Chantharith told Reuters.   Bavet is on a highway stretching from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's commercial centre, to Cambodia's capital, Phnom Penh.
Why are the people so mad?  Well, maybe it's because, China claims the ENTIRE South China Sea as THEIRS -- not giving a damn that most nations abide by the UNCLOS  (the UN Convention on Law of the Sea) economic exclusion zone of 200 nautical miles.  Have a look at a map below showing Chinese territorial claims versus claims of it's SE Asian neighbors.

Most of this is about potential oil and gas resources by the way.  Vietnam has very active offshore leasing, exploration and production activities including foreign operating companies in their 200 mile economic exclusion zone (like many countries around the world), and according to The Economist
On June 21, 2012 Vietnam's parliament passed a maritime law that reasserted the country's claims to the Spratly and Paracel Islands (see map below). China called this a “serious violation” of its sovereignty. It responded by declaring that a county-level government which supposedly governs the two archipelagoes and much of the rest of the South China Sea from one of the Paracel Islands, had been upgraded to the administrative level of a prefecture. Chinese media described this notional jurisdiction, Sansha, as by far the biggest prefecture in the country (though its population of a few hundred people is heavily outnumbered by gulls and its ill-defined territory is mostly water). Some Chinese internet users speculated excitedly about who might be appointed mayor, but reports on some websites that a 45-year-old hydrologist had got the job were later dismissed as a spoof.
Tensions rose further with an announcement late last month by CNOOC, a Chinese state-owned oil company, that it was opening nine blocks in what China calls the South Sea to international bids for oil and gas exploration. These reach to within 37 nautical miles (68km) of Vietnam's coast, according to PetroVietnam, a Vietnamese state-owned oil firm.
China has been inflaming the region with their outrageous territorial claims for years.  They have even used military force and intimidation in recent years to step on it's regional neighbors.  As recently as July 2012, there was a stand-off with China and the Philippines recently regarding the Scarborough Shoals off of the Philippines (see map above).  Both sides had military vessels in the area and tensions ran high.

Add the fact that China claimed a wide air exclusion zone far outside of it's boundaries which disrupted international air travel routes and affecting Japan.  The Chinese are also claiming the disputed Senaku islands that are also claimed by Japan. The US has nothing to challenge this thanks to our timid leadership.

So, everyone in SE Asia now hates the Chinese (and Japan).  But at least Japan has been a good neighbor for the past 70 years.

All of this is more evidence that the post-WWII world order is under serious assault due, in part, to Obama's intentional effort to weaken US influence abroad.  Weak or inept leadership invites bad behavior by the world's bad actors.  It leads to wars not peace.   Obama's laughable "Asia Pivot" is a case in point.  It's obviously laughable to the Chinese. The oil rig placement was done just after Obama's region-wide tour and was done seemingly to poke a finger in his face.  As to weak and/or inept leadership, think about Putin's triumphs in Syria and Ukraine. The Chinese continue to provoke nearly all of it's SE Asian neighbors plus Japan despite the US "Asia pivot" promises (while Obama reduces our military strength like the good Liberal that he is).   

China are communist imperialistic, mercantilist pigs bent on driving their economy forward at breakneck speed -- all in the name of "GDP."  This is necessary because the communist party's only claim to legitimacy is creating jobs and a modicum of hope for their citizens (while racking up massive debts, accumulating huge trade surpluses and foreign currency reserves vis-a-vis with everyone else). They will do anything to stay in power. This includes running roughshod over the environment, human rights, their own citizens, trading partners and international law.  They even will threaten their SE Asia neighbors with raw displays of military force.  To feed their perverted drive for legitimacy (because they are illegitimate), they'll distort world's commodity, currency and financial markets and they'll also do anything to hush and silence critics. We see the true colors of the Chinese Regime at work here. 

Stock Markets: Is Past Prologue?

From a ZeroHedge post:

Exponential (blow-off) tops tend to follow similar patterns of peaks then reversals (crashes).  There's one more relevant historical market comparison and that's the 1962 JFK bear market mentioned here.

Monday, April 2, 2018

A Theology or the 21st Century: Simple But Powerful

In my blog posts entitled "A Theology for the 21st Century," "A Theology for the 21st Century: Faith is not Believing the Unbelievable" and "A Theology for the 21st Century: An Open Letter to Atheists and Non-Believers", I have tried to briefly explain a few aspects of my faith underpinnings mostly formed about 40 years ago during my college years.

In these blog posts, I occasionally intimate that traditional religions go too far with their complicated dogmas and are too confident or too certain in their proclamations. And their use of religious language is too rigid, too rote and often stale or uninspiring. Too many literally interpret the Bible without understanding the many problems with ancient languages & linguistics and the difficulty in understanding the ancient cultures and their history. Finally, we must recognize the use of myths throughout the Bible yet still appreciate and understand their important meanings and symbolism. Biblical literalism or fundamentalism is a dangerous Biblio-idolatry. All of our scriptures come from very ancient times after all, so none of this should be a surprise. Scholars can and do spend their entire lifetimes studying the Bible and the cultures of that time.

Some people might read the posts in this series and accuse me of being "Chrisitan-lite" or that I am a Christian apologetic. I'm OK with that. Everyone is entitled to their opinions.  But there's something to be said about not going too far and keeping it simple. Even simple theological principles can do wonders.

Take Alcoholics Anonymous for example. They lay out a simple 12 step plan that includes the most minimal theology imaginable, a good bit of wisdom and a simple emphasis on community. These 12 steps and the resulting small communities of self-professed "sinners" have changed millions of lives and saved millions from the ruin of alcohol or drug addiction worldwide.  Here's the 12 steps:
  1. We admitted we were powerless over alcohol—that our lives had become unmanageable.
  2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.
  3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.
  4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.
  5. Admitted to God, to ourselves, and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.
  6. Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character.
  7. Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.
  8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed and became willing to make amends to them all.
  9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.
  10. Continued to take a personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.
  11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.
  12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics and to practice these principles in all our affairs.
Like the 10 commandments, these 12 steps contain enough inspiration and wisdom to have saved millions of lives worldwide since 1935. The basics are a) acknowledging God as you understand him. b) You must make an honest moral inventory of ourselves and c) Confessing to God your sins d) asking God to help remove our sins and e) making amends to people you're wronged and asking forgiveness. They let each person define what God is to them -- not much dogma there!

Here's the biggest thing: it is that like-minded people, who have admitted their sins, get together as a community where they must be honest with themselves, God and other members, share the common theology outlined above and work toward physical and spiritual health. As a community they are committed to helping each other. Most people in AA have a sponsor who is available at anytime to help someone else if they are in trouble, at risk of relapse or in crisis.

Remember, community is really the same as church. AA is a type of Church then. 

The magic is a) accepting a higher power in our lives, that we are powerless or even insane without this understanding (beware Atheists) b) that there is wisdom, helping and healing to be derived from prayer, c) having a realistic and truthful understanding of our faults and sins, c) sharing and helping others brings healing and growth. In fact, you could say that when two or more people who gather in His name, He is there. Helping and healing should be understood as miraculous and has a cosmic dimension.

The AA program is working around the world even in Buddhist countries who don't technically have a theology.

The other thing that supports AA's success is that many of their members come to AA at their "wits end"or at "rock bottom"where nothing else has worked, so they are powerfully motivated for change. They are ready to receive these messages. We live in time where many people are in a existential or spiritual crisis but don't have a substance abuse problem could still benefit from such a program. Anyone could. 

Alcoholics Anonymous shows how a simple a theology guiding a faith community can impact millions and millions of troubled lives all over the world. It's simple and powerful.

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Diversity is a Disaster: European Edition

Western countries are in the grip of "globalist" idiot-leaders who want "diversity"-- meaning they want to erase borders and foolishly allow mass migration of peoples who are very or totally different in culture, median intelligence, language and religion into previously homogeneous cultures. I discuss this in my blog post "Homogeneous Cultures Are Peaceful: Diversity is a Disaster."

Whereas "protecting" and "promoting" blacks is one major effort of US Leftists, in Europe the most desperate propaganda and totalitarian methods are designed to "protect" and remediate the horrible reputation of the hordes of Muslim invaders that have been allowed to surge into Europe from their own failed countries.

Islam's terrible reputation is well-deserved. Their 1400 year history is full of violence and murder and it continues today with at least a dozen violent war zones occurring today around the world. Islam is much more than a religion, it's also a political movement -- really the modern day Nazi Party. They are taught to hate Jews, gays and anyone or any culture who is not Islamic. And like Nazis, they are fanatics and supremacists. This is so despite the fact that every majority Muslim country or community is either a complete failure, or nearly so. But that's why millions are fleeing into Europe: the entire Arab/Muslim culture in the Middle East is in collapse. Their "culture"is generally a massive failure with a few exceptions in Asia.

Most people, except Leftists, can see that Muslims are not even remotely compatible with liberal democracy yet this population is being championed, protected and coddled by Western Leftists who are blind to their considerable evil (including Obama). This is true even after some 35 Islamic terrorist attacks have already plagued Europe in the last 18 months alone! A smaller number of Islamic attacks have occurred in the US as well.

Only a handful of European elites have allowed this to happen, and no one else was or is given a choice or a vote.

The poster child of this idiotic fantasy and ignorance is Sweden's Leftist leader's policy of importing Arab and North African Muslims. This insane policy continues despite massive evidence that they are creating a huge cultural disaster. Leftists are stubborn, stupid people who are immune to any facts and reality that conflicts with their insane ideas. These people have essentially ruined Sweden and they must be driven from office and power by force if necessary.

This disaster is best described by a Swede:
"Sweden is in the process of destroying a civilization that took 1,000 years to build. It floods its cities with aliens who dislike the food and climate, feel uncomfortable with the taciturn, reserved Swedes around them, mostly cannot work for months or years for language reasons, and end up festering in angry and unemployment-plagued parallel societies in the suburbs. I don’t care what the stats are made to say. What I know is this. When I first stayed in Sweden, three decades ago, crime of any kind was a rarity. When I last stayed there, a few years ago, it was a daily occurrence. I don’t need BRAA reports to know that everything in Sweden has changed. You name it: murder, non-fatal shootings and stabbings, burglary, rape, rioting, vandalism, molestation, benefit swindling: all of these things are now daily occurrences in large parts of most cities, and in nearly all of Malmo. In cities, young women do not dare to go out alone at night. That’s a banal observation that hides an awful truth: Sweden has lost the most valuable thing any society can have: civic trust. For decades Swedes could trust strangers to do the right thing. Well, they can’t any more. In fact, a lot of them simply avoid certain parts of town, and look away from certain faces. That too is new. The old Sweden—the real Sweden--never really had places you could not feel safe in. But thanks to mass immigration, all that has gone, as it has gone in our country too."
This sort of unvarnished truth is hard to come by as there as a Political Correctness totalitarianism that has descended on Europe (and Sweden) by Leftist elites -- designed to manipulate the masses and hide even the most obvious truths such as the disaster of Muslim migration. And opposing opinions must be stifled by highly propagandized media messages and totalitarian "hate" laws --which are massively abused (as should be expected).  Orwell's 1984 is now a reality in Europe. A similar effort is underway in America too as the hand-full of corporate media outlets have turned into just massive liars and propagandists.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Homogeneous Cultures Are Peaceful; "Diversity" is a Disaster

Homogeneous populations are peaceful. "Diverse" populations are not peaceful but full of strife and conflict.  Diversity is never a good idea. It is in fact the cause of most of the world’s conflicts: Shia and Sunni, Jew and Arab, Hutu and Tutsi, Tamil and Sinhalese, Hindu and Muslim and, in America, black, white, and brown. "Diversity" is now causing of the dissolution of America AND Europe is next.

Wise countries like Korea and Japan have a long-standing understanding that a homogeneous culture preserves peace and relative tranquility. And it continues to work very well even today. They don't have any race riots or religious wars or any discord of one group getting welfare benefits and another grouping paying for the benefits. They have one dominant culture that includes everyone.

The US also used to be very homogeneous because US immigration policies historically preferred white, English-speaking and Christian northern Europeans for nearly our entire history. (Yes, a good amount of Asian migration too.) All of that worked beautifully because we imported people: 1) from the same highly evolved culture, 2) that are competent adults with high levels of median intelligence, 3) that have high or even unrivaled academic, moral and educational standards and achievements, 4) possess good creativity and intelligence driving huge prosperity, 5) that hold similar religious views with similar ethical traditions and a strong work ethic. For theses reasons and for most of our history, there was no state welfare system as families, local and faith communities, and local and state governments were all competent in taking care of their own. And economic freedom was so great that certain highly competent entrepreneurs (all white men) built-out our nation's entire industrial economy and infrastructure employing millions. The US government was small enough to be irrelevant.

It used to be that local communities where allowed to persist unmolested complete with various community standards --otherwise known as freedom. Kids in West Virginia went to high school during hunting season with a shot gun mounted in their trucks so they could hunt after school. Nothing like that existed in Boston or New York.

Then the Liberal Left and their activist courts intervened. Suddenly Christmas manger scenes or prayers were not allowed. The Ten Commandments can't be displayed in public buildings without challenges from insane Leftists. Homosexuality, which was quietly tolerated, is now taught to our kids at our schools (whether parents want it or not), Blacks were forced to co-exist with Whites through court-ordered desegregation.

Desegregation of previously peaceful but poor and exclusively black communities forced black kids into white high schools where 90+% can not compete with white kids. On average, Black kids are literally at the bottom of academic achievement compared to other students. Very few can perform proficiently at 12th Grade high school level. Most Blacks are not graduating from high schools leaving them with few legitimate options in our de-industrialized economy. It isn't working!  It's not changing either. You're not even "allowed" to talk about any of this.

Then in the US, the Left and Globalists allowed mass immigration of relatively uneducated, often illiterate and unskilled, non-English speaking Latinos with no financial means to come in massive numbers with all the problems that come with that---the welfare of our nation or affected communities be damned.  Of course every one of our laws governing immigration were ignored and broken. All of these people came seeking work, not holidays.  And seeking work lawfully requires work permits which, in turn, requires some evidence that the migrant can do something that native-born Americans can't do. This is true in every country in the world including the US.  I can't go to any country in the world and just settle-in or work. To immigrate to another country and work  requires that I apply in advance and show that I have financial means or a job arranged, provide a CV to show that I have desirable skills that local people in the host country don't have,  provide a police report from my home country, medical certifications and other bureaucratic hurtles.  It all must be done in advance. 

Every country on earth enforces these similarly strict rules of immigration for work or any kind of residency permissions EXCEPT stupid America. Instead in dumbass America we allow masses of people into our country who often have little to offer our country. Worse, our economy is not creating enough jobs for anyone. All this devastation to secure votes and give corporations cheap labor. I don't blame Latinos for taking advantage of our idiocy.

First generation Latino immigrants are in a somewhat better situation than native blacks as their cultural roots and family structure are much more intact. But what's never discussed is that subsequent Latino generations, where more than half don't graduate from US high schools, many turn to gangs, and illicit, criminal activity similar to ghetto blacks. The resulting black and brown ghettos are immature, uncultured, depraved, violent, primitive and basically have no place in our previously advanced civilization. Isn't diversity wonderful?

Thanks to pricks like Obama and cunts like Hillary Clinton, suddenly half our country has REALLY lost it's mind as militant Blacks, Latinos, Lesbians and various other "victims" have taken control of the Democratic Party. Now white men are under attack as the source of societies ills (also called "projection" in psychological terms). White boys and men are now supposed to become de-masculinized or they are "too white"as claimed by incredibly ignorant minorities. Females, gays and transsexuals are approved for combat duty whether it's well-advised or not. What is good for the country or military is irrelevant. Only propagating various unproven, false and nonsense memes matter ---a kind of mass insanity  These people are obsessing about and told that they can select their gender and sexual identity at will as if it were some kind of smorgasbord. All of this because the now hijacked Democratic party and the Left are profoundly ignorant, disconnected from knowledge of our cultural roots and our Judeo-Christian heritage, our history, science, psychiatry or any other facts. These ignoramuses are running rampant tearing down anything that they don't like or understand. And if you present them with facts, they want to shut you up.  What's missing from all this?  REALITY!

Ah, the fruits of "diversity."

The Left will never get it because they are utterly stupid and ignorant of, history, logic or facts. They just want to act on "feelings." They are desperate to create what they believe should be. But everything they believe is wrong! They are very disrespectful people. They hate America, they hate everything that is good and wholesome in this country and they hate anyone that disagrees with them.  They are the stupidest people on earth because they never listen and never learn. No one can tell them anything. They will never see that their agenda, including diversity, is a disaster.  They must be driven from our courts, the government, the media and must be driven from anywhere where they have power over other people by force if necessary. The Left IS the disaster.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Market Analogy to 1962 JFK and 1987 Stock Market Crashes

This next week, week of March 26th, is going to be interesting.

The S&P 500 has hit it's 200 day moving average again. It's possible that it'll bounce and then it's up, up and away. Here's a weekly S&P 500 chart showing last week's steep drop:

Weekly Chart of S&P 500, Week Ending Mar 23, 2018

Global Macro Monitor has zeroed on a market analogy from 1962 when JFK was president. At that time, inflation was rising and JFK had a spat with US steel producers. He threatened them and made them roll back prices. The stock market had roared higher into 1962 as in 2017 and January of 2018, but took a sudden 30% swoon.  Here's the analogy between then and now.

Suddenly the 2018 Market Action is worse in comparison to 1962. There was a 30% quick bear market that was "buyable"

There is a possibility, with computer algorithm trading, High frequency traders, and all of the trend following, that we'll see another 1987 event:

Another Possible Market Analogy to the US Stock Market in 2018; the Crash of 1987

Below is a summary from Global Macro Monitor of the current market action vs the 1962 market and the 1987 Crash. The upshot of these severe and sudden downturns without recession is that they were all a place to buy equities. Beware of re-tests that might shake you out.  

Friday, March 23, 2018

The US Economy on Life Support -- Masking Economic "Depression"

In my blog post, Why Our Economy is in an Ongoing Depression and Will Only Get Worse, I focus on very unfavorable demographic trends for all of the major economies-- all except Africa. (Africa is irrelevant in economic terms.)

When populations are shrinking and aging, which is the reality for most of the major economies taken together, then demand also declines. If demand is declining, then growth turns into outright decline. The problem is that all the debt outstanding was issued based on the assumption that the issuer's revenue will GROW so that it will able to pay both principal plus interest.  However, if the issuer's revenue SHRINKS, then they won't have a surplus to pay interest and principal. In shrinking economies, defaults soar.  Debt defaults with shrinking economies is nearly the definition of economic depression.

The only reason that Depression is not evident or reported is because government spending (using debt) has masked shrinking economies both here an especially Europe. Without debt spending, Western economies would be shrinking, ie., we would be in multi-year economic depression. The US (and most of the world) is basically on life support. See the following charts.

The Great Financial Crisis Caused a Depression That Continues Today. Only Deficit Spending (Debt) is Masking the Reality of Economic Depression

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 Caused a "Depression" That Continues Today. The Underlying Economy is Actually Shrinking Without Ever Rising Debt

A basic lesson about macroeconomics. The equation below shows how GDP is calculated:

GDP  =  Consumer spending + Gov't Spending + Investment Spending + Net Exports.

In this GDP equation, debt doesn't matter. And it doesn't matter if consumers or governments are borrowing money to spend --and both are. Also note that, since the US runs a consistent and large trade deficit, our "net export" part of the equation is strongly negative (We're a net importer). This is why President Trump is determined to address excessive trade deficits -- to make it less negative which will improve GDP. He's also OK with increased government spending (and more deficits/debt) since it adds more to GDP.  He's hoping that all these measures will also stimulate investment spending when manufacturing is repatriated. Investment spending has been notably absent since the GFC. There's an intellectual consistency with Trump, but few give him credit.  He's doing all the right things, but against demographic and many other headwinds.

Real economic growth potential comes from two simple factors: it is the simple sum of productivity growth plus population growth. Productivity growth is the increasing output from labor and capital which, in normal times might be 2%.  But since 2007, it's only been growing at about 0.4%. Again, if Trump can convince companies to spend money on plant and equipment, productivity should improve toward more normal levels. But it's hard for productivity to improve if population growth is low or negative and demand is low.

Population growth used to be about 2 or 3%, so, adding population and productivity together, then historically real economic growth used to be 4 to 5% prior to year 2000.  In recent years, population growth (which includes immigration or emigration) has been 0.5% but is set to turn negative in the future.  (See Why is Our Economy is in Depression and Will Get Only Worse).  So real growth going forward, barring large increases in immigration, should be expected to be only average about 1%. Worse, as population growth further stagnates and declines, that 1% growth will drop or go negative for long periods in future decades, ie., economic depression. Remember the problem with debt servicing (and an additional problem of rolling-over debt).

The US economy is not performing at anywhere near growth trends prior to 2007 and year 2000. You can see the stagnation in the charts below:

What Modern "Depression" Looks Like: It's a Prolonged Deviation From Trend. Something Bad Happened in 2007
You can seet that the US growth trend has deviated markedly from long-term trends leaving a huge gap in what output should have been. No one at the Federal Reserve appears to understand what is going on. Some of it is due to the collapse of Eurodollar liquidity which is just one reason in a litany of reasons as to why our economy is reaching the end of a long road.

Although headline unemployment is at near-record lows, which 'sounds' good, but it masks a loss of millions of workers that left the workforce out of desperation, went on government assistance or retired. Since 2007, job growth has not kept up with population growth for the first time in US history.

Unemployment Headline Misleads As Millions Have Left Labor Force
Ten years after the Great Recession of 2008/2009, our economy has not adequately recovered and is in fact on the "life support" of ever increasing debt and easy money. There is plenty of risk that this is unsustainable. If asset markets reverse sharply, which could easily cause a recession, then our ugly reality may re-assert itself. The future looks extremely uncertain.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The Left Are "People of the Lie"--In a Dangerous Spiritual and Psychological Crisis

People on the Left are evil because they are full of lies that they tell themselves and accuse others of the very evil that THEY embody. And as a group, they take comfort in repeating lies among themselves because it reinforces their delusions --because if they repeat them day after day, it begins to have the illusion of truth. That's their method of brain-washing their supporters. They live in their own bubbles of delusion in the capitals of Leftism on both coasts. Nearly everything they believe is untrue, phony or a lie--which is a warning flag of mental problems.

Case in point: the Democrats are massively obsessed with the possibility that Putin "interfered" with the 2016 election. There's very scant evidence of this. After a year of obsessive investigation and surveillance, special prosecutor Mueller finally indicted 13 Russians for using Twitter to attack Hillary. These indictments are a sham because none of these Russians will ever be in a position to clear their name in a court of law since they live in Russia. And, if they are guilty of attacking Hillary to make her look bad (which she is), then I AM guilty too!! Hell, millions are "guilty." Hillary is more than a liar, she murdered people who would expose her corruption.

But everything they accuse Putin of doing is what THEY are guilty of. We're finding out that Leftist outfits like Twitter and Facebook are in fact the ones who manipulated the election.  A Obama staffer admits that Facebook was on our side. (We're not even counting illegal vote fraud, rigging of the primary, etc). Leaders in the DOJ and FBI "covered" for Hillary to exonerate her and plot against Trump. Virtually everything ever said by Hillary in the 2016 campaign was a lie while she continued to sell-out our country to the highest bidder. She is literally the corruption queen---just like Putin. Hillary is a murderer too--just like Putin. Hillary and The Left ARE Putin!

The entire Mueller "prosecution" of Trump is a lie. They are supposedly looking for corruption in Trump's camp, but they are drowning in hard evidence of widespread Democratic corruption, manipulation, fraud, lies. All the people on that panel are hopelessly compromised. There isn't an ounce of integrity there.

Democrats illustrate a textbook case of what psychologists call "projection:" they fail to see that THEY THEMSELVES are the embodiment of what they accuse others of being! From M.Scott Peck's "People of the Lies"
Since evil people, deep down, feel themselves to be faultless, it is inevitable that when they are in conflict with the world, they will invariably perceive other as bad. They project their own evil onto the world. They never think of themselves as evil: on the other hand, they consequently see much evil in others. 
They see America as evil and white men at the pinnacle of that evil! That's so absurd it requires examination of their mental state. Instead, it is Democrats and The Left that are evil and racist. The truth is that the heart of racism in America is (black) Democrats!! Democrats have become the anti-white party in a nation of 70% white people!  Hillary's campaign was massively racist, calling half of our nation every name in the book: xenophobic, racist, islamophobic, etc, etc.  Condemning everyone who was a Trump supporter with the same generalization? That's literally the definition of racist!!

Their embrace of Marxist class warfare has torn this nation apart. Obama, like most black people who don't understand what made America great, was dedicated to weaken and divide this country. He and Hillary, disasters for this country, largely succeeded their intended destruction.

Leftists reject the truth of religion and mock others for their Christian views, but they are the worst sinners. They can't even follow the Ten Commandment's prohibition of "thou shall not covet your neighbor’s house, your neighbor’s wife, or his male or female servant, his ox or donkey, or anything that belongs to your neighbor." (that's 3 of the 10 commandments by the way.)  The Left is our desperately envious of the wealthy and DO INDEED covet their neighbor's wealth. Hell Bernie Sanders wants a 90% top tax rate to confiscate his neighbor's wealth! They hate the rich, but so many are filthy rich themselves. Love of money is the root of all evil and Leftists love YOUR money.

Evil people can't change or self-reflect. It's because self-criticism is a call to personality change, but that's painful. Their old pattern has to go---like a death. This applies to "normal people" too, but the evil are pathologically and rigidly attached to their status-quo which they regard as perfect. That's why evil people are so insecure; to them even considering a small change in their beloved selves represents a threat of total annihilation. And criticism or self-criticism of those who are evil is synonymous with the threat of extinction. It's intolerable!!

This is why The Left is so violent. Criticism threatens to topple their entire edifice of self-delusions. It's so scary to them that they would lash out violently instead. They want to kill the messenger. They literally would like to kill Trump. His truth-bombs hit too close to home. They are so afraid and insecure. 

Paraphrasing M. Scott Peck,  the evil attack others instead of facing their own failures. Spiritual growth requires the acknowledgement of one's need to grow. If we cannot make that acknowledgement, then we have no option except to attempt to eradicate the evidence of their imperfection. This applies to The Left.  They want to kill the messenger. Kill Trump. Kill conservatives! And they mean it! It's very evil!

"Evil" people also need to maintain an appearance of being good. They intensely desire to appear good, but the "goodness" is really pretentious. That is why Peck calls them "People of the Lie." At some deep level, evil people have some understanding of their own evil nature, but they are desperately trying to escape that knowledge.

And that's why they reject Christianity. Christianity requires that we confess our numerous sins and ask forgiveness from a higher power. Evil people can't stand any self-examination either in a church pew, a confessional, or in psychological therapy. It's deeply threatening to them. They have a desperate need to escape self-examination and instead spend a lot of energy to trying to sweep their imperfection under the rug. It's this covering-up process, their attempt to hide from themselves, that is their source of wickedness.  You can see how they would have no desire to go to church and be honest with themselves and God.

The Left (and evil people) are really suffering from a psychological and spiritual crisis and they are determined to avoid that very realization. Many on The Left need therapy and/or spiritual counsel,  but they are rigidly unable to accept that.  This is the sickness. Leftism is a sickness and is evil.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

A Theology for the 21st Century: An Open Letter to Atheists and Non-Believers

Paul Tillich, perhaps the greatest Protestant theologian in the past 100 years said that, among the definitions of God include: "that which you take seriously without reservation" or "that which is our ultimate concern" or "that which is at the heart of things, or the "really real."  These definitions leave open the possibility that a person's God might be something like wealth, fame or power. After all, for those who "worship" money or power, accumulating money or power would indeed be the motivating or energizing "power" in those person's lives. It's what gets them out of bed in the morning.

Religion is about our reason for living, it is about that which we dedicate our lives, or that which gives our lives meaning and what energizes our life force and directs our energy. Belief in "God" by whatever definition, and in it's broadest definition, is what we live for and is what strongly motivates us. What do YOU really believe in?

People who say they are atheists fail to understand that they are actually theists in the broadest sense of the word as nearly everyone believes something and has something near and dear to their hearts. They have a God whether they know it or not. In fact, I would say that only those who kill themselves are truly atheists (excepting mental illness) since they are proclaiming that there is no meaning in life, that nothing is worth getting out of bed in the morning and that there is nothing worth living for. Suicide is an extreme exclamation point for this lack of faith in a God. Many suicide victims would be clinically depressed, but the lack of a belief in God may be a root cause of that depression and a pastor might be more helpful than a psychiatrist diagnose the root of the problem. Belief in God is not only what motivates us, but it's a life or death issue.

Obviously materialism is not a very authentic God in terms of Tillich's other definitions such as "what is really real" or "what is at the heart of things." Christianity and Judaism have a lot more to say about what a more authentic God might look like. If I asked randomly of people on the street about the most important thing for them, I think most people would say family. To their credit, that's pretty close to an authentic ultimate concern. Others might say love. That too is great.

To non-believers and atheists, I need to remind you that you already believe in something. And you probably picked it up from parents, your culture or elsewhere where you live. Our entire culture, whether you know it or acknowledge it, is based on Judeo-Christian faiths, ethics and law. Our Western cultural, legal and political systems are largely the result of thousands of years of our Judeo-Christian heritage. And western civilizations and their descendants have created the most advanced, democratic, prosperous, lawful, orderly, and civilized countries the world has ever known. (In contrast, see my post "Why Trump is Correct: Most Places are Shitholes" to learn of just one culture without our Judeo-Christian heritage. It's not pretty.)

Such success is ultimately based firmly on the Christian (and Jewish) religions, civilizations and cultures as recorded in the Bible, and later adopted and incorporated into Roman and European cultures. More recently, we enjoy a 1000 year history of Anglo ideas and philosophies, dating from Pre-Norman times to the Magna Carta and beyond, that ultimately culminated in the exceptional US Constitution and culture. These outstanding ideas, based ultimately in, and combined with, the work ethic and Judeo-Christian ethics of mostly white European immigrants to the US, led to the most successful and vibrant political, economic and social "experiment" ever seen in world history: the USA.

So much of the hard work, sweat and labor has been done for us, sort of a cultural gift. People who live in and pick up the prevailing culture and ethics are often ignorant of where it came from. Now, we're so prosperous and distracted by our vibrant culture that we fail to properly give credit to our religious and cultural heritage that made it all possible. It's a pity because it's all being lost now because of this ignorance. All that we have is primarily the result of White, mostly English-speaking, Northern European accomplishments with solid roots in Christianity.  If you read about the phony memes of our day, all of this is being rejected--most often by minorities.  And no, we're not all the same. No, not all religions are the same. And no, not all races are equalThe White race has been in fact superior in nearly every way. You will be booted off of Facebook, Twitter or any college campus for uttering any of those words since the speech-oppressive culture described in Orwell's 1984 book has asserted itself, (especially in Europe).

Many people, sitting in lovely houses and sitting in comfortable luxury, have rejected organized religion or Christianity---including so-called Atheists. They might say that they are more "spiritual" rather than a Christian. Reasons for this rejection of modern Christianity might include: 1) they don't want to believe in unbelievable myths that are found throughout the Bible and no one has explained the symbolism, meaning and value in these myths 2) they think that Christians believe in an "old man in the sky"version of God, 3) Use of religious language and terms like God, Christ, prayer, sin and grace are not understood. These terms become stale and lose their power when they are not continually explained and refreshed using real-life examples and ordinary language, especially for newcomers, 4) how can a man of science be a Christian? 5) religious leaders speak too confidently about what God is doing in the world even though there are profound mysteries in this or they overuse the word "God" which tends to trivialize it's meaning, (Jews were forbidden to even speak their word for God (Yahweh) for this reason --using "Lord" instead) 6) Religious people speak too confidently about afterlife even though it's the ultimate mystery,  7) Christianity requires you to believe in the unbelievable or believe in complicated religious dogmas. These objections are often valid and based in fact. I've tried to address a few of these objections in my posts "A Theology for the 21st Century" and "A Theology for the 21st Century: Faith is not Believing the Unbelievable."

The simple truth is that Christianity is dying in places like Europe, where faith in man and his institutions (government) are offered as a substitute for Christianity. Socialism has tried to usurp faith community's role in charity by substituting face-less and impersonal institutional redistribution, leaving less need for the more personal faith community. Communist governments have sought to eliminate and outlaw religious faith entirely and substitute "man" instead of God. The State has gotten into the education "business" too where higher learning began in mostly Protestant and Catholic Universities (see a list here for just the US). While Christianity is essentially dead in Europe, killed by the State, Islam is allowed to flood into Europe. These Muslims, in comparison to Christians, are extremely confident, even arrogant and supremacist, in their views. They bring their own culture, their own legal system and are determined to overpopulate and dominate any area that they occupy. They don't integrate into their host cultures and they aren't working because these people are incompetent, low to no skill, and have nothing to offer! And they are fighting and murdering 100s of thousands per decade in wars against Kaffirs (any other faith) in dozens of countries. In sum, government and Islam seem determined to wipe out Christianity and Christians once again.

Western Civilization is all unraveling as knowledge of our heritage has evaporated. The State and the Left have chased God out of schools, universities and our society, leaving only fools in charge. Foolish is an apt description of Western culture now.  Our entire heritage of western civilization is under attack by Leftism (Socialism) and Islam. Traditional religious denominations are failing and ignored. Christianity is dying in Europe and elsewhere and Christians and Christianity are once again being slaughtered into oblivion in the Middle East by Muslims while the West and the Catholic Church just passively look on. The leader of Catholic Church, Pope Francis, who is steeped (brainwashed) in all the failed socialist ideas of Latin America and who hasn't learned a thing, is a utter fool.

And now, young people want Socialism even though it's a proven loser. People want to turn to alternative economic systems since our economy is so ravaged by Big Government failures and the Big Corruption that always accompanies Big Govt. Big Government breeds Big Corporations too. It wasn't supposed to be this way. The US Constitution is clear in it's design for limited government and sound money.

In the US, we've strayed from knowledge of God, the Bible, the Ten Commandments, our History and our Constitution. The latest generation and most of our incoming non-European immigrants know even less of these things. So it should be no surprise that our corrupt leaders know nothing and don't care about anyone but themselves. Ever bigger government and debt, unsound money, unsound banking and social, moral, cultural and economic decay and failure is leading to massive societal failures. We're left with nothing but the unwise and fools in charge. Our nation is at risk. Western civilization is at risk. .